AFC:
#3 Houston Texans (10-6) vs. #6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
Saturday, 4:30 NBC
In the end, their Week 17 home losses meant nothing. Change those losses to wins and we still have the same matchup. These teams met Week 14 in Cincy, where TJ Yates threw for 300 yards and threw a game-winning TD pass with six seconds left to beat Cincinnati 20-19. The Bengals were up 16-3 at half, but in only his second start, Yates led the Texans to a big road win that clinched their first ever division title.
The Bengals played in the NFL’s toughest division and went 5-3 on the road, but have struggled in games against good teams. Cincinnati went 0-7 against teams in the playoffs. That’s right, they’ve lost all their games to playoff teams and went undefeated against teams who did not make the postseason. In a way that is very impressive. All the top NFL teams slip up at least one week to a team they are better than. The Packers lost to the Chiefs. The Saints lost to the Rams and the Buccaneers. The 49ers lost to the Cardinals. The Patriots lost to the Bills. All four of the Ravens losses were to non-playoff teams, including the Jaguars and Seahawks.
What does this mean? Will the Bengals lose because they are playing a team in the playoffs? The thing about these seven losses is that most of them were close. All but one of their losses was by less than eight points. This includes one game against the Steelers, two against the Ravens, one against the 49ers, one at Houston, and one at Denver. There is a very similar trend with the 9 wins of Cincinnati. Only one of their wins was by more than 10 points. You would hope for more blowout wins playing the likes of Cleveland twice, Indy, Buffalo, Jacksonville, St. Louis, and others.
The Texans will come out fired up, playing their first playoff game in franchise history, as will their fans. With two quarterbacks playing their first playoff game, it will come down to who is more composed. It is going to be very close and won by the team that commits the least amount of turnovers.
Prediction:
Bengals 23, Texans 20
#4 Denver Broncos (8-8) vs. #5 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Sunday, 4:30 CBS
Don’t look at their seeds, look at their records. The Broncos come into the playoffs losing three straight, while the Steelers have won 6 of their last 7. The Steelers are huge road favorites, despite injuries to Mendenhall and Ryan Clark. Ben Roethlisberger will play, but he will be nowhere close to one hundred percent. I feel like he is always playing with injuries, so I don’t think this will be a major problem. Plus, the Steelers shouldn’t need Big Ben to make too many big plays. The loss of Rashard Mendenhall is tough as the only healthy ball carriers on the roster are Isaac Redman and rookie John Clay.
This will not be a high scoring game with the Steelers defense. They are the best against the pass and eighth against the rush. Sure, losing Ryan Clark, the team’s leading tackler, will help the Broncos a little bit. But, the Steelers have only given up more than 10 points once since Week 10. I don’t see Tebow, McGahee, and the offense putting up enough points to win this game. Someone tell Elway it’s time to get another QB.
Expect an ugly, low-scoring game, with a lot of punts, sacks, and low yardage plays. Look out for Antonio Brown on special teams to make an impact for the Steelers.
Prediction:
Steelers 23, Broncos 13
NFC
#3 New Orleans Saints (13-3) vs. #6 Detroit Lions (10-6)
Saturday, 8 NBC
This has to be the most exciting game of wildcard weekend. The Saints are the league’s hottest team, winning eight straight with Drew Brees breaking records left and right. The Saints are undefeated at home and had the best offensive season of all-time, but don’t count out the Lions. In Week 13, the Lions went to New Orleans and lost to the Saints by only 14. It’s funny saying only 14, but the Lions played one of their worst games of their year. They were without Ndamukong Suh, and defensive backs Chris Houston and Louis Delmas. The Lions rushed for under 100 yards and Megatron had a below average performance. Their defense held the Saints to seven points in the second half. They dominated time of possession, but what killed them were their 107 penalty yards on 11 penalties.
If the Lions can limit their penalties and get pressure on Brees with Suh, this will be a down to the wire game. Matt Stafford had a terrific year and with Calvin Johnson at wide receiver, anything is possible. It was only three years ago that Lions went 0-16 and the franchise is going to be excited to play in its first playoff game since the 1999 season. It’s hard to find a major flaw in New Orleans. They have a solid run D and their pass defense ranks 30th, but with their offense, that hasn’t been a problem.
Both teams are going to score a lot of points and put up big numbers through the air, but the difference will be the running game. The Lions will need to establish a running game with Kevin Smith in order to win this game. I just don’t see that happening. The Saints surprisingly have the sixth best rushing offense in the NFL. Darren Sproles set an NFL record this year for all-purpose yards and expect him to be the difference maker.
Prediction:
Saints 38, Lions 27
#4 New York Giants (9-7) vs. #5 Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
Sunday, 1 FOX
This game may not involve two quarterbacks like Drew Brees and Matt Stafford, but an Eli Manning-Matt Ryan matchup isn’t too shabby. Remember when Eli said that he was an elite quarterback and is on the same level as his brother, Brady, and others. Well he proved that. Eli threw for over 4900 yards and set an NFL record with 15 fourth quarter touchdowns. Matt Ryan is having his best season with 29 touchdowns and set career highs in passing yards and passer rating. Both quarterbacks have two solid receivers. The Giants have the best receiver duo in the NFL with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. Nicks and Cruz both had over 1000 yards receiving. The Falcons have Roddy White and Julio Jones. White was one of two receivers in the league to have 100-plus targets and he also led the NFL in targets. Julio Jones missed four games and battled numerous injuries, but still almost had 1000 yards receiving.
Both teams have a great passing attack, but only the Falcons have a consistent running game. Atlanta runningback Michael Turner had over 1300 yards on the ground on 301 carries. New York doesn’t have a feature back, but Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to get the bulk of the carries, along with Brandon Jacobs and DJ Ware. In fact, the Giants are last in the NFL in rushing. This puts a lot of pressure on Eli to make plays with his arm. Although, the running game takes some of the pressure off Ryan, there is a lot of pressure on him to win. Ryan has yet to win a playoff game in Atlanta. They were the number one seed last year and lost to the Packers in the divisional round.
The Giants have Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Jason Pierre Paul on the defensive line. Atlanta has a physical offensive line and Michael Turner. The winner of this battle is going to win this game. I am taking the proven playoff team in this one.
Prediction:
Giants 28, Falcons 27
If these predictions turn out to be right, then these would be the matchups in the divisional round.
AFC:
Bengals at New England
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
NFC:
New Orleans at San Francisco
New York at Green Bay
Enjoy Wild Card Weekend everyone.
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